The Litecoin (LTC) price shows bullish signs in the weekly time frame, which could lead to a price appreciation before the third halving in Aug.
This will reduce the block reward from 12.5 to 6.25 LTC per block. Similar to Bitcoin, the halving is engrained in the Litecoin code, and in a way, is its monetary policy. The halving will occur at block height 2,520,000, projected to occur on Aug. 4.
What Happened to the Litecoin Price in Previous Halvings?
The first and second halvings occurred in Aug. 2015 and 2019, respectively (red icons). In both cases, significant upward movements preceded the event.
In 2015, the Litecoin price increased by 312% in the 203 days preceding the halving. However, it decreased considerably afterward, entering a period of consolidation that continued until the next bull run.
The Litecoin price also increased by 312% preceding the second halving, but this increase transpired over 245 days. There was an even sharper downward movement afterward, but the price rose to new highs when the next bull run began.
Therefore, the first two halvings were characterized by similar price action. The Litecoin price appreciated considerably prior to the event and then fell afterward.
Litecoin Price Prediction Until the Third Halving
The LTC price has decreased under a descending resistance line since reaching a maximum price of $413.50 in May 2021. The downward movement led to a minimum price of $40.30 in June 2022.
However, the Litecoin price began an upward movement shortly afterward and broke out from the resistance line in Oct. 2022. Shortly afterward, the RSI also broke out from its descending resistance line and moved above 50. Both these are considered signs of bullish trends.
If the upward movement continues, the closest resistance area would be at $130. An increase toward this level would fit with the historical readings regarding the halving since the price would appreciate leading up to the event.
However, the daily time frame shows that the LTC price is trading at the resistance line of an ascending parallel channel. Such channels often contain corrective movements.
As a result, the LTC price has to break out from the channel for the aforementioned upward movement to transpire. Since the daily RSI broke out from its bearish divergence trend line, a breakout from the channel is the most likely price forecast.
On the other hand, failure to do so would lead to a re-test of the channel’s midline at $70 and possibly a fall to its support line at $55.
To conclude, the Litecoin price has historically appreciated considerably prior to its halving but then fell sharply afterward. This occurrence also fits with the technical analysis readings from the weekly time frame.
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